Does economic policy uncertainty affect cryptocurrency markets? Evidence from Twitter-based uncertainty measures

Using daily data from August 9, 2015, to July 7, 2020, this study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the returns of four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. To this end, two new measures of EPU (Twitter-based economic uncertainty and Twitter-based market uncertainty) are considered. A Granger causality test using the recursive evolving window approach shows a significant causality between the Twitter-based EPU measures and the BTC/USD exchange rate from October 2016 to July 2017. Moreover, a significant causality was noted from the EPU measures to the ETH/USD exchange rate from June 2019 to February 2020 and from the EPU measures to the XRP/USD exchange rate from January 2020 to February 2020. The Twitter-based EPU measures primarily positively affect the returns of the related cryptocurrencies during these periods. These results are robust to different measures of Twitter-based EPU and different econometric techniques. Potential implications, including the COVID-19 era, are also discussed.     

权力义务视角下完善向基层赋权的思考

2010年开始,向基层赋权作为行政体制改革的重要内容在全国范围铺开。从权力义务视角对其进行研究有现实的必要性。赋权的核心是行政权力的转移,以权力转移过程中涉及的诸要素为切入点,可以分析出多重权力关系和有关主体在其中的权力义务。在此基础上,通过保障行政相对人对于赋权的参与权、设计上级行政机关实施赋权的制度、消除上级行政机关赋权的依据问题和设计基层行政机关行使权力的制度等方式完善向基层赋权,既使行政机关能够有效推进行政体制改革,又能对行政权进行有效规范、保障行政相对人权利。     

A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model

It is well known that intra-industry trade and cross-border production networks have promoted economic growth and regional integration in East Asia. However, regional supply and production chains may have been formed differently across industries, reflecting different degrees and a different scope of regional economic linkages at an industry level. This paper makes a threefold contribution. First, to assess industry-level differences, this study adopts the generalized purchasing power parity (G-PPP) model using industry-specific producer prices. Second, the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model is employed to allow for possible nonlinearity arising from the dynamic nature of regional economic growth and development. Third, the Granger causality test is also conducted to assess whether regional economies have autonomously integrated. The empirical results reveal that economic integration has progressed more autonomously in the electrical industry, as well as in the transportation equipment industry, as China and the ASEAN countries have become the final destination markets for finished products in these two industries.     

国有林场改革成效评价——职工获得感的统计分析

利用国有林场职工监测数据,基于物质维度和精神维度,从改革后职工自身的收益情况、职工对林场的整体评价、职工对林场管理方式的评价等方面,采用比较分析法和主成分分析法对国有林场改革职工获得感进行分析。研究结果表明:国有林场改革后职工获得感有所提升,改革进程与职工获得感呈强正相关性,改革促进了林场的可持续发展。但林场整体基础设施环境一般,场部相对较好,管护站点则较差。同时,在领导班子建设方面应注重自主、公平,仍需提高领导水平。     

Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

Optimal granularity for portfolio choice

Many optimization-based portfolio rules fail to beat the simple 1/N rule out-of-sample because of parameter uncertainty. In this paper we suggest a grouping strategy in which we first form groups of equally weighted stocks and then optimize over the resulting groups only. This strategy aims at balancing the trade-off between the benefits from optimization and the losses from estimation risk. We rely on Monte-Carlo simulations to illustrate the performance of the strategy, and we derive the optimal group size for a simplified setup. Furthermore, we show that estimation risk also has an impact via the criterion by which the assets are sorted into groups (like the expected excess returns or betas), but does not negate the grouping approach. We relate our work to linear asset pricing models, and we conduct out of sample back-tests in order to confirm the validity of our grouping strategy empirically.     

On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies

Based on a cross section of 17 advanced economies and data for the period 1975 to 2015, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. We construct a proxy for the unobservable inflation uncertainty based on the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation from a Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). We show that long-run inflation uncertainty is high if an inflation-tolerant central bank governor is in power during a period of high inflation, if the policy rate is below the one that is prescribed by the Taylor rule and during times of heightened stock and exchange rate volatility.     

Net neutrality and market power: The case of South Africa

Net neutrality rules have been implemented in many developed countries, often in response to concerns over network operator market power and potential blocking or throttling of content. However, developing countries typically have significantly lower levels of internet penetration and usage. Market power in respect of internet access looks quite different given that mobile is the predominant means of connection and there are often three or more mobile operators. In South Africa, there is a quasi-monopoly in the paid satellite broadcasting market and broadband providers zero-rating content from third parties (such as Netflix) may bring about more competition. We test the main theories of harm arising in the net neutrality debate, including network operator market power and exclusion among content providers using data on the number of announced prefixes and peers and IP addresses and considering examples of bundling and zero-rating conduct by operators. We find that net neutrality rules are less likely to be required in South Africa and other developing countries and that strict enforcement of such rules could in fact hinder competition in markets for content, telecommunications networks and other related markets.     

Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis

Regulators have been paying increasing attention to governing and steering market fluctuations, with their role in shaping the economic cycle being ever more crucial. The combined effect of the financial and sovereign debt crises, as well as the approach to the zero lower bound, has made actions even more pressing, forcing the European Central Bank to resort to unconventional instruments to revive the economies and counter deflationary pressures. By using a combined event study and panel regression methodology, we investigate whether European Monetary Union equity markets react heterogeneously to standard and non-standard European Central Bank policy innovations. Our results show that conventional policies unevenly affect financial indices in the Eurozone and, hence, are bound to generate asymmetries that reflect on real economies, while unconventional measures, albeit with different intensities, exercise a homogeneous pressure on all markets. Our evidence highlights the beneficial impact of unconventional measures and suggests that they can play a useful role even in non-crisis times.     

Technology interdependence and entry modes of the Taiwanese technological multinational companies: moderating effects of political instability,technological uncertainty,and Confucian dynamism

This study aims to examine how technology interdependence and three environmental variables, namely political instability, technological uncertainty and Confucian dynamism, in the host country collectively influence Taiwanese technological multinational company’s (MNC) entry mode choice between joint venture (JV) and wholly owned subsidiary (WOS). Grounded on theories of transaction cost economies and organisational design, this study hypothesises a positive technology interdependence–WOS relationship that can be explained by appropriation and coordination concerns. Moreover, the aforementioned relationship can be positively moderated by technological uncertainty while negatively moderated by political instability and Confucian dynamism. These hypotheses were examined and supported using logistic regressions in the analysis of 195 foreign entries undertaken by Taiwanese information and electronic MNCs.